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Price momentum supported by strong fundamentals

 

Summary: Taking a Hit Despite Oil’s So-Called Bottoming Out

 

Abraxas Petroleum Corporation, incorporated on August 31, 1990, is an independent energy company. The Company is primarily engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and gas. As of December 31, 2014, the Company’s estimated net proved reserves were 42.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which 42% were classified as proved developed, 78% were oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) and 92% of which (on a PV-10 basis) were operated by the Company. The Company’s daily net production for the year ended December 31, 2014 was 5,720 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boepd), of which 77% was oil or liquids. The Company’s oil and gas assets are located in three operating regions, the Rocky Mountain, Permian Basin and onshore Gulf Coast.

The Company’s properties in the Rocky Mountain region are located in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana and in the Green River Powder River and Unita Basins of Wyoming and Utah. In this region its wells produce oil and gas from various reservoirs, including the Turner Bakken Three Forks and Red River formations. Well depths range from 7,000 feet down to 14,000 feet.

The Company’s properties in the Permian Basin region are primarily located in two sub-basins, the Delaware Basin and the Eastern Shelf. In the Delaware Basin, its wells are located in Pecos, Reeves, and Ward Counties, Texas and produce oil and gas from multiple stacked formations from the Bell Canyon at 5,000 feet down to the Ellenburger at 16,000 feet. In the Eastern Shelf, its wells are principally located in Coke, Scurry, Mitchell and Nolan Counties, Texas and produce oil and gas from the Strawn Reef formation at 5,000 to 7,500 feet and oil from the shallower Clearfork formation at depths ranging from 2,300 to 3,300 feet.

The Company’s properties in the onshore Gulf Coast region are located along the Edwards trend in DeWitt and Lavaca Counties, Texas, the Eagle Ford shale in Atascosa and McMullen Counties, Texas and in the Portilla field in San Patricio County, Texas. In the Edwards trend, its wells produce gas from the Edwards formation at a depth of 14,000 feet. In the Eagle Ford, its wells produce from the Eagle Ford shale from 8,000 to 11,000 feet, and in the Portilla field, its wells produce oil and gas from the Frio sands and the deeper Vicksburg from depths of approximately 7,000 to 9,000 feet.

Abraxas Petroleum Corporation has a current market capitalization of $107.71 with 106.35 M outstanding shares. Its daily average volume traded is 0.76 M shares.

Financial Highlights (Q3 2015):

Revenue: 16.08 M

Gross Profit: 9.27 M

Net Income: -52.37 M

Cash and Cash Equivalents: Nil

Total Debt: 127.29 M

Recent News and Analysis:

The company recently provided an operational, A&D and reserve update. Production for the fourth quarter of 2015 is expected to average approximately 5,841 boepd (3,696 barrels of oil per day, 8,352 mcf of natural gas per day, 753 barrels of NGL per day). Abraxas volumes were negatively impacted by a 45 day delay in the gas takeaway expansion in the Bakken and unanticipated downtime on the system during installation, which caused curtailments on additional wells in the field. Moreover, Abraxas experienced greater than anticipated downtime in returning wells to production that were shut in during the fracture stimulation of the Stenehjem 5H, Sten Rav 1H and Ravin 8H. January 2016 production averaged an estimated 6,000 boepd with an average of approximately 358 boepd curtailed or shut in for remediation. Capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2015 are expected to be approximately $69.4 million. Due to increased drilling efficiencies, Abraxas drilled and cased two additional laterals, the Stenehjem 10H and 11H, which were original scheduled to be TD’d in 2016. Moreover, Abraxas elected to participate in an additional non-operated Bakken well with a 36% working interest which has been drilled, cased and is now waiting on completion. December 31, 2015 reserves consisted of approximately 24.1 million barrels of oil, 6.6 million barrels of NGLs and 75.0 billion cubic feet of natural gas. Proved developed producing reserves were 13.7 MMBoe and comprised 32% of proved reserves as of December 31, 2015. Proved developed non-producing reserves, which include the seven gross drilled, but uncompleted Bakken/Three Forks wells were 3.5 MMBoe at December 31, 2015.

Conclusions:

Abraxas Petroleum Corp. stock had its “buy” rating reissued by Canaccord Genuity in a research note issued to investors on March 1. They currently have a $2.00 target price on the energy company’s stock. Canaccord Genuity’s price objective points to a potential upside of 80.18% from the company’s current price. Several other brokerages have also weighed in on AXAS. SunTrust lowered Abraxas Petroleum Corp. from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research report on Monday, February 1st. Zacks Investment Research raised Abraxas Petroleum Corp. from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Friday, January 1st. Robert W. Baird dropped their target price on Abraxas Petroleum Corp. from $2.00 to $1.00 in a research report on Friday, February 5th. Finally, Imperial Capital dropped their target price on Abraxas Petroleum Corp. from $1.75 to $1.00 and set an “in-line” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, December 17th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, five have issued a hold rating and four have given a buy rating to the stock. The company currently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $2.19.

Sources:

1. http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/companyProfile?rpc=66&symbol=AXAS.O
2. https://www.google.ca/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAXAS&fstype=ii&hl=en&gl=ca&ei=hHXjVrG6EcWd2Aas8ovwBg
3. http://www.franklinindependent.com/how-many-abraxas-petroleum-corp-nasdaqaxass-analysts-are-bearish/
4. http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/abraxas-petroleum-corp-price-momentum-supported-by-strong-fundamentals/

 

 

 

 

 

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